Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Sugarcane Productivity in South Gujarat Using the CANEGRO Model

The study aims to assess the impact of climate change on sugarcane yield attributes in South Gujarat region using bias-corrected General Circulation Model (GCM) projections under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. These models were selected based on their accuracy in representing historical climate data and their applicability for future climate projections in the study region. Under SSP585, maximum temperature is projected to rise by 2.4 °C and minimum temperature by over 5.6 °C by the end of the century. Rainfall projections suggest a potential increase of up to 14.50% by 2090. Yield simulations using CANEGRO indicate moderate yield declines (-1% to -2.1%) under SSP245 but substantial reductions (-14% to -15%) under SSP585 due to heat and water stress. Sucrose content also exhibited sharper declines, underscoring the adverse effects of high-emission scenarios. These findings highlight the necessity for climate adaptation and mitigation strategies in sugarcane cultivation.